While many expected that the box office would see huge drop-offs with the release of Moana 2, many other movies did quite well, making for a successful box office overall.
A Solid Top Three At The Box Office
I predicted last week that Moana 2 would make $135 million and it made, well, exactly that. As per Box Office Mojo, the movie brought in $135 million and was the first-place film at the box office. Any time there’s a family movie you have the benefit of group buying, meaning that tickets are often purchased for groups. Sometimes tickets are purchased in groups of three or four; or in some cases, eight to ten. It was bound to be a huge weekend for Moana 2 and it certainly didn’t lose any momentum for Disney who has thus far had a stellar comeback year with a string of solid hits. Even with all the strong work from Disney with the likes of Inside Out 2 and Deadpool & Wolverine, Moana 2 managed to outgross both of those. How it does long term will be interesting. Its future looks bright, but will it outgross those movies in the long run? Disney certainly wants it to.
While Moana 2‘s box office success was assured, many weren’t too sure about Wicked, which seemed poised to make a large dropoff. Luckily, instead, people saw Wicked as well (and Gladiator 2, but more on that later). This meant that Wicked not only had a noticeably smaller drop-off of only 29%, but it also earned $80 million in second. This weekend was one of the strongest in recent memory. It certainly is the strongest weekend of 2024.
Gladiator II also kept its audience. The movie dropped to third at the box office but only lost 44% of its audience. The movie earned $30 million.
Red One and The Best Christmas Pageant Ever kept the holiday cheer at the box office in fourth and fifth respectively.
Next Week’s Predictions
Next weekend will see the release of two smaller flicks, Y2K and Nightbitch.
Y2K is tracking for a $4 million to $8 million opening at the box office, its marketing efforts have been popping up here and there but I don’t think it’s been effective enough to draw in audiences. It may land in the fifth-place spot, but it’s not going to be a clean finish. I predict the movie will make slightly more than $4 million; perhaps in the $5 million range.
Nightbitch is not going to do well. The movie is skipping many markets entirely; and in the case of some (i.e. Canada) they are going straight to streaming sometime in 2025. This pretty much leaves the US as the exclusive market for the film theatrically, and even there, it’s gone without marketing outside of some buzz from film festivals like the Toronto International Film Festival and the Vancouver International Film Festival where the movie screened. Ironically, these events ended up being the only times in Canada you could’ve caught this movie on a theatrical screen. Regardless, I think it may make $1 million. Mostly due to the buzz off the festival circuit, and the good will people have towards Amy Adams.
Next week will likely be a carbon repeat (with some gross lost obviously) of this week.
As always, we’ll find out next week!
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