Wicked and Gladiator II were all the hot focus of this weekend. However, in the end, both movies underperformed at the box office.
Wicked And Gladiator II Underperform
This weekend was all about Glicked, the box office battle between Wicked and Gladiator II but in the end neither performed extremely well.
Wicked was number one as per Box Office Mojo; earning $114 million; which was in line with my predictions. This is a lot, but there are some important factors to take into account. For one, the reported budget is $350 million for both movies or $175 million for each. Which with marketing costs would mean it would have to make $300 million to be profitable. It was tracking for $150 million which would’ve started it on better footing to getting that goal; but with $115 million, and Moana 2 nipping at its heels. It’s not looking overly likely that the movie can make $300 million. So even with it making $114 million and placing first; it may still be considered a financial disappointment.
Gladiator II also underperformed. It was tracking for $65 million and was at one point looking like it could make $80 million; but in the end only earned $55 million in second. Still a solid amount but considering its $250 million budget, and roughly $100 million in marketing; that means the movie needs to earn $350 million to be considered profitable. Now, with that said the movie is better placed than Wicked in that it doesn’t have too much in the way of counter-programming coming for quite some time. To be profitable, Gladiator II will need to be earning for December into the new year. With December being loaded with movies geared towards children and teens, Gladiator II could pull this off.
The Rest Of The Box Office
Red One dropped from first to third, earning $13 million. Bonhoeffer: Pastor. Spy. Assassin. debuted to $5 million in fourth place. Finally, Venom: The Last Dance dropped from second to fifth. The film has earned $456 million worldwide, thus ensuring that while titled ‘The Last Dance’ this is likely far from the last time we’ll see Tom Hardy and the symbiote.
Moanapocalypse: How Much Will It Make?
Moana 2 will clearly be the first-place film next week at the box office. It’s tracking for a $125 million to $150 million over the 5-day Thanksgiving long weekend. Disney movies do well on the Thanksgiving long weekend, and Disney sequels especially tend to do well. While I don’t think this will earn as much as Inside Out 2 and its $154 million opening or Incredibles 2 and its $182 million opening; I do see it earning around $135 million which is still a comfortable amount. With a reported $150 million budget, I think that’ll be enough for the movie to do well and be considered successful. The movie also has almost a month until it sees any real competition at the box office from Sonic the Hedgehog 3 on December 20th. Meaning that December will mostly belong to Moana 2.
As always, we’ll find out next week!
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