The Oscars are finally upon us! It’s been a long year, filled with some incredible films and performances that deserve to be honored at Hollywood’s big night. So much of the fun of awards season is predicting who will go home with a trophy, and who will go home empty-handed. The predictions for winners have shifted throughout the past few months, with some upsets at other awards ceremonies upending early odds, but the Oscars are the ultimate goal, the culmination of prestige film.
Heading to an Oscar party and still have no clue who’s going to win some, or all of the Oscars? Take a look below! We promise you’ll at least do better than if you picked winners at random.
Interested in more of our awards coverage? Keep an eye on our Live Events category!
BEST PICTURE – OPPENHEIMER
Contenders: The Zone of Interest, Anatomy of a Fall
Dark Horses: American Fiction, Barbie, Poor Things, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Past Lives, Maestro
Final Notes: Oppenheimer will (and should, in my opinion) win Best Picture. The international films The Zone of Interest and Anatomy of a Fall have an outside chance at an upset, and shouldn’t be counted out, but this historical ensemble epic will surely take home the top prize.
BEST DIRECTOR – CHRISTOPHER NOLAN (OPPENHEIMER)
Contenders: Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall), Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest)
Dark Horses: Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things), Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon)
Final Notes: This is Nolan’s award to lose. There’s still a chance for Triet and Glazer (more likely Triet), but Nolan should win his first directing Oscar for a well-deserved job on Oppenheimer.
BEST ACTOR – CILLIAN MURPHY (OPPENHEIMER)
Contenders: Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers)
Dark Horses: Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction), Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Colman Domingo (Rustin)
Final Notes: Cillian Murphy’s win at the SAG Awards has pretty much guaranteed his win for Best Actor. There’s a chance that Giamatti could snatch this away from Murphy’s hands, but that’s unlikely.
BEST ACTRESS – LILY GLADSTONE (KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON)
Contenders: Emma Stone (Poor Things)
Dark Horses: Sandra Huller (Anatomy of a Fall), Carey Mulligan (Maestro), Annette Bening (Nyad)
Final Notes: The Best Actress race has been certainly one of the most thrilling. Echoing last year’s race between Michelle Yeoh and Cate Blanchett, the two performances of Lily Gladstone and Emma Stone have been neck-and-neck for most of the past 6 months. Although this race is a tossup, I think that Gladstone’s win at the SAG Awards has her edging past Stone for the trophy.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR – ROBERT DOWNEY JR. (OPPENHEIMER)
Contenders: None.
Dark Horses: Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things), Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction), Ryan Gosling (Barbie), Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon)
Final Notes: As if it wasn’t already a guarantee, Robert Downey Jr.’s win at the SAG Awards has cemented his win for Best Supporting Actor.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS – DA’VINE JOY RANDOLPH (THE HOLDOVERS)
Contenders: None.
Dark Horses: Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer), Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple), Jodie Foster (Nyad), America Ferrera (Barbie)
Final Notes: The Supporting Actor and Actress winners have been locked in for months. Much like Downey Jr., Da’Vine Joy Randolph will win Best Supporting Actress. Any other winner would be one of the biggest Oscars upsets ever.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY – AMERICAN FICTION
Contenders: Oppenheimer, Barbie
Dark Horses: Poor Things, The Zone of Interest
Final Notes: This category is packed with amazing writing, and honestly all of the nominees here would be well-deserved winners. Although Oppenheimer has a strong chance of winning, I see Cord Jefferson’s satire American Fiction as the winner. This will likely be the film’s only win at these Oscars.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY – ANATOMY OF A FALL
Contenders: The Holdovers, Past Lives
Dark Horses: Maestro, May December
Final Notes: Much like the other screenplay category, all of the films have a chance to take home the prize. However, Anatomy of a Fall’s absence from Best International Feature likely means that voters will look to award it something elsewhere, and this is the prime category to do it.
BEST EDITING – OPPENHEIMER
Contenders: Killers of the Flower Moon, Poor Things
Dark Horses: Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers
Final Notes: Oppenheimer will surely win at least one technical category, and I see it snagging editing as potentially the first of many. Killers of the Flower Moon has the next best chance.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY – OPPENHEIMER
Contenders: Poor Things
Dark Horses: Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, El Conde
Final Notes: Oppenheimer’s win at the BAFTAs has certainly increased its chances at a win in cinematography. However, with a category of gorgeous films, don’t be surprised if another film takes home the prize (likely Poor Things).
BEST COSTUME DESIGN – POOR THINGS
Contenders: Barbie
Dark Horses: Oppenheimer, Killers of the Flower Moon, Napoleon
Final Notes: Barbie and Poor Things are the two films that have the best chance at winning for costumes. However, Poor Things has the edge thanks to its alternate universe twist on nobility attire.
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING – MAESTRO
Contenders: Poor Things
Dark Horses: Oppenheimer, Golda, Society of the Snow
Final Notes: Maestro was the clear frontrunner in this category ever since its release, but Poor Things’ incredible makeup work (on Willem Dafoe especially) gives it a significant chance to win this Oscar. In this tight race, I’m slightly more inclined to lean Maestro here due to the Academy preferring physical transformations into real people (in this case, Bradley Cooper’s portrayal of Leonard Bernstein).
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN – BARBIE
Contenders: Poor Things
Dark Horses: Oppenheimer, Killers of the Flower Moon, Napoleon
Final Notes: Much like Costume Design, Production Design is a two-way race between Barbie and Poor Things. I see the two films splitting the crafts categories, with Barbie winning for its plastic recreation of Barbieland.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE – OPPENHEIMER
Contenders: Killers of the Flower Moon
Dark Horses: Poor Things, American Fiction, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Final Notes: Ludwig Göransson will win yet another deserved Oscar here for his haunting and complicated score for Oppenheimer. The late Robbie Robertson could be honored for his work on Killers of the Flower Moon, but Göransson will likely win again at the Oscars following his score on 2019’s Black Panther.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG – WHAT WAS I MADE FOR? (FROM BARBIE)
Contenders: I’m Just Ken (Barbie)
Dark Horses: It Never Went Away (American Symphony), Wahzhazhe: A Song For My People (Killers of the Flower Moon), The Fire Inside (Flamin’ Hot)
Final Notes: I can guarantee one thing about the winner of Best Original Song: it will be from Barbie. Now, whether it’s Billie and Finneas’ emotional tune What Was I Made For?, or Ryan Gosling’s satirical I’m Just Ken, we’ll have to see. I’m leaning the former at the Oscars.
BEST SOUND – OPPENHEIMER
Contenders: The Zone of Interest
Dark Horses: Maestro, The Creator, Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part One
Final Notes: This year’s movies have been filled with impressive sound design, and the Oscars have put together a great group of nominees. However, Oppenheimer’s unique and jarring use of sound (and lack of sound) will likely court over voters. The Zone of Interest, which is a film practically built around the use of noise, would also be a fitting winner and is my personal pick for best of the year. Oppenheimer should win, though.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS – THE CREATOR
Contenders: Godzilla Minus One
Dark Horses: Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Napoleon, Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part One
Final Notes: This year, the frontrunners for Best Visual Effects are not in the running because of flashy, impressive visuals, but rather their ability to create beautiful imagery on limited budgets. Godzilla Minus One and The Creator both had budgets under $100 million, with Godzilla Minus One reportedly working with less than $20 million for the entire film. Both are incredibly impressive for their budgets, but I’m giving a slight advantage to The Creator. Despite my pick, I wouldn’t be surprised if Godzilla wins.
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE – THE ZONE OF INTEREST
Contenders: Society of the Snow
Dark Horses: Perfect Days, Io Capitano, The Teachers’ Lounge
Final Notes: If Anatomy of a Fall was the French pick for International Feature, this category would be much more interesting. Alas, France’s decided to put forward The Taste of Things, which failed to land even a nomination. Society of the Snow has a slim chance, but The Zone of Interest will win here.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE – THE BOY AND THE HERON
Contenders: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Dark Horses: Elemental, Nimona, Robot Dreams
Final Notes: Spider-Man or Miyazaki? Both films were incredible in their own ways, and absolutely deserve to be honored. Most predict Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse to win here, but with its recent BAFTA win and a more international voting body for the Oscars this year, I’ve picked The Boy and the Heron.
BEST ANIMATED SHORT – WAR IS OVER! Inspired by the Music of John and Yoko
Contenders: Letter to a Pig
Dark Horses: Ninety-Five Senses, Our Uniform, Pachyderme
Final Notes: Is War is Over! the best animated short of the year? …probably not. Is it a timely anti-war short featuring the music of John Lennon and Yoko Ono? You bet it is. Oscar voters love cultural relevance, and this is right up their alley.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE – 20 DAYS IN MARIUPOL
Contenders: Four Daughters
Dark Horses: Bobi Wine: The People’s President, The Eternal Memory, To Kill a Tiger
Final Notes: 20 Days in Mariupol is now the clear favorite for Best Documentary. This harrowing tale of the last foreign journalists trapped in the Ukrainian city of Mariupol is incredible, and you can watch the film for free here.
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT – THE ABCS OF BOOK BANNING
Contenders: The Last Repair Shop, Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó
Dark Horses: The Barber of Little Rock, Island in Between
Final Notes: Predictions for Best Documentary Short are all over the place, with practically every short in contention this year. Although the majority of experts seem to like The Last Repair Shop’s chances, I’m predicting The ABCs of Book Banning. Much like my prediction for Best Animated Short, Oscars voters love a topical prize, and this one is right up their alley,
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT – THE WONDERFUL STORY OF HENRY SUGAR
Contenders: Red, White, and Blue
Dark Horses: The After, Invincible, Knight of Fortune
Final Notes: This final category is another two-way race, between Wes Anderson’s star-studded The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar, and Nazrin Choudhury’s pressing abortion tale Red, White, and Blue. Although either film has a great chance, I’m picking Wes Anderson and his short film Henry Sugar.
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