Awards season continues barreling along, with the BAFTAs in London just concluding. Surprises at the British awards show have potentially uprooted many categories at the upcoming Academy Awards. How much has the landscape shifted? Take a look below to find out! Here are our updated predictions for winners in every category at the Oscars.
We’ll be posting predictions again just prior to the Oscars ceremony, so make sure to keep an eye out in the Live Events category in the leadup to the awards show on March 10th!
Best Picture – Oppenheimer
Contenders: The Zone of Interest, Anatomy of a Fall
Dark Horses: American Fiction, Barbie, Poor Things, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Past Lives, Maestro
How have the BAFTA’s changed things? Oppenheimer is the clear frontrunner for Best Picture. 7 wins at the BAFTAs, including Best Film, have confirmed it as the film to beat at this year’s Oscars. An upset would be shocking and monumental, but certainly not impossible.
Best Director – Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer)
Contenders: Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall), Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest)
Dark Horses: Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things), Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon)
How have the BAFTA’s changed things? Christopher Nolan’s win at the BAFTAs has solidified him as the leader of the pack for Best Director. He will likely win, but don’t be shocked if Triet or Glazer pull off an upset.
Best Actor – Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer)
Contenders: Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers)
Dark Horses: Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction), Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Colman Domingo (Rustin)
How have the BAFTA’s changed things? Cillian Murphy’s win at the BAFTAs has him squeezing past Paul Giamatti to take hold of the frontrunner position. This can change in the next few weeks, especially with the Screen Actors Guild announcing their winners, but Murphy’s portrayal of Oppenheimer should snag him an Oscar.
Best Actress – Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon)
Contenders: Emma Stone (Poor Things)
Dark Horses: Sandra Huller (Anatomy of a Fall), Carey Mulligan (Maestro), Annette Bening (Nyad)
How have the BAFTA’s changed things? This is a tough category to predict. Emma Stone won at the BAFTAs, but Lily Gladstone wasn’t even nominated, putting a question mark on Stone’s win. I still have Gladstone winning at the Oscars, but it wouldn’t surprise anyone to see Emma Stone win her second Oscar this March.
Best Supporting Actor – Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer)
Contenders: None.
Dark Horses: Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things), Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction), Ryan Gosling (Barbie), Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon)
How have the BAFTA’s changed things? It’s confirmed: Robert Downey Jr. will win his first Academy Award this year. The only way he doesn’t walk on the stage to accept this award in March is if he somehow isn’t at the ceremony.
Best Supporting Actress – Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)
Contenders: None.
Dark Horses: Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer), Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple), Jodie Foster (Nyad), America Ferrera (Barbie)
How have the BAFTA’s changed things? Much like Robert Downey Jr., Da’Vine Joy Randolph will earn her first Oscar in March. Her performance in The Holdovers is stunning and certainly deserving of this recognition.
Best Adapted Screenplay – Oppenheimer
Contenders: American Fiction
Dark Horses: Poor Things, The Zone of Interest, Barbie
How have the BAFTA’s changed things? The absolute biggest shock of the day at the BAFTAs was American Fiction winning Best Adapted Screenplay. The film was definitely not out of the running for this award at the Oscars, but it’s now absolutely a potential winner. I still see Christopher Nolan taking this award, but keep your eyes on Cord Jefferson and American Fiction.
Best Original Screenplay – Anatomy of a Fall
Contenders: The Holdovers, Past Lives
Dark Horses: Maestro, May December
How have the BAFTA’s changed things? The nominees at the BAFTAs and the Oscars are nearly identical here, save the Brits picking Barbie over May December. Anatomy of a Fall’s win here has cemented it as the frontrunner in this category, but it isn’t a sure thing. The Holdovers and potentially Past Lives, led by more North American talent, could outgun this French nominee.
Best Editing – Oppenheimer
Contenders: Killers of the Flower Moon, Poor Things
Dark Horses: Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers
How have the BAFTA’s changed things? Oppenheimer’s win in editing at the BAFTAs has catapulted it into the favorite position. Poor Things and Killers of the Flower Moon still are in the race, but Oppenheimer has pulled away.
Best Cinematography – Oppenheimer
Contenders: Poor Things
Dark Horses: Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, El Conde
How have the BAFTA’s changed things? This category was already a tight race between Oppenheimer and Poor Things, but Oppenheimer’s win at the BAFTAs has certainly given it a boost. I wouldn’t be surprised if Poor Things pulls off the upset at the Oscars, however.
Best Costume Design – Poor Things
Contenders: Barbie
Dark Horses: Oppenheimer, Killers of the Flower Moon, Napoleon
How have the BAFTA’s changed things? There’s still a chance for Barbie to win Best Costume Design, but Poor Things’ win nearly guarantees an Oscar in March.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling – Maestro
Contenders: Poor Things
Dark Horses: Oppenheimer, Golda, Society of the Snow
How have the BAFTA’s changed things? Maestro’s chances of winning an Oscar have been slowly dwindling over time, and Poor Things winning the BAFTA in this category certainly didn’t help. Things can change over the next couple of weeks, but as of now, I have Maestro barely beating out Poor Things for Makeup and Hairstyling.
Best Production Design – Barbie
Contenders: Poor Things
Dark Horses: Oppenheimer, Killers of the Flower Moon, Napoleon
How have the BAFTA’s changed things? Poor Things and Barbie are the only two real contenders for Production Design. Although Poor Things eked out a win at the BAFTAs, I still have Barbie winning the Oscar in this category.
Best Original Score – Oppenheimer
Contenders: Killers of the Flower Moon
Dark Horses: Poor Things, American Fiction, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
How have the BAFTA’s changed things? Ludwig Göransson’s score for Oppenheimer is the clear favorite in this category, especially after its win at the BAFTAs, but the late Robbie Robertson’s work on Killers of the Flower Moon still has an outside chance.
Best Original Song – What Was I Made For? (from Barbie)
Contenders: I’m Just Ken (Barbie)
Dark Horses: It Never Went Away (American Symphony), Wahzhazhe: A Song For My People (Killers of the Flower Moon), The Fire Inside (Flamin’ Hot)
How have the BAFTA’s changed things? No change. This category is not present at the BAFTAs.
Best Sound – Oppenheimer
Contenders: The Zone of Interest
Dark Horses: Maestro, The Creator, Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part One
How have the BAFTA’s changed things? The Zone of Interest’s win at the BAFTAs certainly was an upset, and it now has a real chance at an Oscar in this category. However, the British-produced film always had an advantage at the British awards show, and Oppenheimer likely still has a lock for Best Sound.
Best Visual Effects – Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Contenders: The Creator, Godzilla Minus One
Dark Horses: Napoleon, Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part One
How have the BAFTA’s changed things? The first shock at the BAFTAs came early, with Poor Things winning in this category after not being nominated at the Oscars. Unpredictability in this category means that the board has shifted slightly. I still see Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 winning here, but Godzilla Minus One’s chances just went up.
Best International Feature – The Zone of Interest
Contenders: Society of the Snow
Dark Horses: Perfect Days, Io Capitano, The Teachers’ Lounge
How have the BAFTA’s changed things? This is now The Zone of Interest’s award to lose. Its win at the BAFTAs over Anatomy of a Fall (which was not France’s choice for the Oscars) should be the final nail in the coffin for Society of the Snow. It would be an unbelievable upset if The Zone of Interest doesn’t win.
Best Animated Feature – The Boy and the Heron
Contenders: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Dark Horses: Elemental, Nimona, Robot Dreams
How have the BAFTA’s changed things? After wins at the Golden Globes and now the BAFTAs, The Boy and the Heron is likely the winner in Best Animated Feature in March. However, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse still has a chance to swing in and take the award.
Best Animated Short – Letter to a Pig
Contenders: WAR IS OVER! Inspired by the Music of John and Yoko, Ninety-Five Senses
Dark Horses: Our Uniform, Pachyderme
How have the BAFTA’s changed things? No change. None of the nominees in this category were BAFTA nominees.
Best Documentary Feature – 20 Days in Mariupol
Contenders: Four Daughters, The Eternal Memory
Dark Horses: Bobi Wine: The People’s President, To Kill a Tiger
How have the BAFTA’s changed things? 20 Days in Mariupol is now the clear favorite for Best Documentary. This harrowing tale of the last foreign journalists trapped in the Ukrainian city of Mariupol is incredible, and you can watch it for free here.
Best Documentary Short – The ABCs of Book Banning
Contenders: Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó
Dark Horses: The Last Repair Shop, The Barber of Little Rock, Island in Between
How have the BAFTA’s changed things? No change. This category is not present at the BAFTAs.
Best Live Action Short – The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
Contenders: Red, White, and Blue
Dark Horses: The After, Invincible, Knight of Fortune
How have the BAFTA’s changed things? No change. None of the nominees in this category were BAFTA nominees.
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